What are Pyongyang’s political and economic goals for 2024, and how will this affect its current relationships with Moscow, Washington, and Seoul? What will this mean for North Koreans who have been from famines following the Covid outbreak?

Pyongyang is currently grappling with ongoing economic strain due to international sanctions resulting from its nuclear and missile programs. This challenge has been aggravated by the country's weak economy following the Covid outbreak. In 2024, it is anticipated that North Korea will continue to face severe food shortages, famine, and other economic hardships.

On the political front, the country is expected to display increased belligerence in its interactions with other countries throughout the year, heightening international relations. Despite the potential for diplomacy to mitigate violence, Kim has consistently turned down meeting requests from the Biden administration. Instead, the number of tests conducted since 2021 significantly increased, surpassing the figures recorded under the previous U.S. administration.

As the US prepares for its presidential elections scheduled in November 2024, experts predict North Korea will likely escalate provocations toward Washington. This may involve maintaining or intensifying its campaign of military pressure on both South Korea and America. Kim’s recent clarification that the South is their “primary foe” and that unification with them is impossible highlights this deteriorating relationship, involving the implementation of hardline policies, would persist until the election concludes

The outcome of the election is also expected to be a pivotal factor in determining the long-term relationships between Pyongyang, Washington, and Seoul. A Trump victory could potentially result in a decrease in provocations towards Washington but might intensify the South Korean discussions of ‘nuclearization’.  

Conversely, North Korea’s relations with Moscow are anticipated to maintain an optimistic turn. In return for Pyongyang's military assistance in aiding Moscow’s war against Ukraine, it is expected that Moscow will provide Pyongyang with cheap or free oil, gas, and grain. This arrangement would keep the country’s falling economy running and help to resolve the aforementioned humanitarian issues. 

In conclusion, Pyongyang’s economic and political goals for 2024 are expected to significantly affect the country’s relationships with Washington, Seoul, and Moscow, whether promoting cooperation or escalating tensions.