There’s Not Going to Be World War III, But It’s Still Going to Be Bad

“Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force,” an excerpt from Vladimir Putin’s speech on the 24th of February, declaring war on Ukraine. Ukraine’s temptation to join NATO, an organization focused on resisting the expansion of the Soviet Union in the post-World War era, has ultimately initiated the crisis. While Russia was informed of the termination of the expansion of NATO towards the east in 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union, more nations would join the organization. As Ukraine, a country directly sharing borders with Russia, is determined to join an anti-Russo organization, Russia struck a global crisis–the war. Regardless of the intentions that sparked the initial trigger of the rifle, destructive damages were made in sectors such as energy, transportation, industrials, and materials.

Chiefly in the oil industry, additional layers of impact were added to the current struggles to maintain stable oil prices. In the status quo, when oil prices were inflated in the aftermath of the global pandemic, Russia–a nation responsible for approximately 10% of the global petroleum production–entering the war created another increase in oil prices and a substantial decrease in oil-related enterprises’ stock.

An extreme instance is Lukoil, a Russian company primarily devoted to exporting gas from non-Russian refineries, which exerts its status in the sector by being the 99th largest public company in the world and the second largest in Russia. Despite its recent trend in the pre-war era, the corporation’s stock price failed to resist the influence of the political crisis. Due to the elasticity of the energy sector, the stock price declined dramatically from $92 to $7 in less than a month. Moreover, Lukoil experienced a decline in revenue since the outbreak of the pandemic: a 3.8% decline in 2020, followed by a drastic 37.3% drop in 2021, according to Fortune. Additionally, OPEC, an intergovernmental organization of petroleum exporting countries, announced their plans to cut oil production by two million barrels–circa the total amount of oil consumed daily in South Korea–per day. This recent move makes a critical impact on oil businesses and is thus expected to assist in the further elevation of gas prices.

Pandemics and political conflicts are inevitable patterns in society, as reflected in our world history. People had their prolonged desire since their existence to capture greater areas of land, maximize profit, and quarrel for various reasons. Wars happened more often in the past compared to the present, though they still remain a continuity and will shape human history in a similar manner in the future. In essence, the prolongment of the Russo-Ukrainian war has left us detrimental damage not only in enterprises based in Russia and Ukraine but at a global scale and in every sector more or less notably.

It has been 241 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, prolonging from 24 February 2022. No one knows when the war will end or when the pain will stop.

It was 24 February 2022 when Russia first invaded Ukraine. President Vladimir V. Putin presented his objective of the invasion to be the “demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). International organizations such as the United Nations have openly denounced Russia for war crimes, and western nations supported Ukraine by imposing sanctions on Russia and providing weaponry. Along with the partial mobilization of Russia on 21 September 2022, the war will only result in more suffering and costs to humanity.

The prolongation of the Ukraine-Russia war had a detrimental effect on the global economy and market of energy due to the large contributions of Russian imports. In 2021, 60% of Russia’s revenue was from energy exports of oil and refined products; according to IEA (International Energy Agency), Russia accounted for 14% of the world’s total supply by exporting 4.7 million BPD of crude throughout the world. Consequently, as Russia invaded Ukraine, oil prices sorted and global gasoline prices increased with the continuation of the war. Heavily importing fuel from Russia, the E.U. is particularly suffering from the rising prices of gas on the global market after the sanctions and an embargo on Russian oil imports. As the Russian-Ukraine war extends, the energy crisis for the world will continue especially in the winter. Experts suggest “the EU imports from alternative suppliers would have to rise by 70%” in the short term. To reduce the reliance on Russian imports and withstand the energy crisis, it will be essential for the E.U. to reduce demands on Russian imports and establish alternative sources of energy to substitute Russian oil imports. Recently, Germany extended the operations of three nuclear power stations that were planned to close by the end of 2022 until mid-April; with extreme reliance on gas from Russia and limited imports after the invasion of Russia, Germany overruled their nuclear decommissioning plan. The nations under the E.U. such as France and Germany are attempting to diversify their energy imports and attain autonomy from Russian imports.

It has long been acknowledged how mobilized warfare's consequences can be detrimental to humanity. From an economic perspective, with the world intertwined through intricate and broad connections, the aftermath of the war affects not only the local states but also the global network; the limited imports of gas from Russia caused fluctuations of gas in the global market. With society and the world becoming more interconnected through the progressive development of technologies and research, the choices and conflicts between nations will have consequential effects on the whole world market.

Before the tragedy of the Ukraine war erupted, NATO sought an alliance with Russia and worked for neutrality. However, as the war began, NATO held a defensive position from Russia because of the threat to Euro-Atlantic Security. NATO allies asked Putin to cease the violence. Russia continued to threaten Ukraine and Euro-Atlantic Security, however. Russia’s stubborn violence worsened Russia and NATO’s relationship, creating hostility. Consequently, NATO placed unprecedented restrictive measures on Russia, including economic sanctions. Russia’s war against Ukraine created antagonism between Russia and NATO.

Currently, the war has entered a protracted state of conflict, becoming a war of attrition. Amidst this, Russia faces severe morale problems. The U.K.’s Ministry of Defense stated that “Cases of whole Russian units refusing orders and armed standoffs between officers and their troops continue to occur''. On the other side, Ukraine’s calls for greater military aid are not met. Ukrainian advisers requested “60 or even 300” rocket artillery systems, to which the U.S., U.K., and Germany have only promised 10. Oleksandr Starukh, a Ukrainian governor, stated that “[they] need these weapons” as economic damage will increase if the war continues. These factors make it unlikely for any side to make headway in the foreseeable future.

In regard to Russia’s political situation, “We will … use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia … this is not a bluff,” said Vladimir Putin during his speech in 2022. Sept. 21, regarding the usage of nuclear weapons. With Russia’s constant threats to use nuclear weapons, the world has expressed worries about the beginning of Armageddon–a catastrophic war that would endanger humanity. Those opposing the Russian threat: EU and NATO have responded to Vladimir Putin’s threats, matching the aggressiveness that Putin has shown, as the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, declared, “[If Putin utilizes nuclear weapons] the Russian army will be annihilated.”

Meanwhile, the majority of people tend to support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine according to public polls by Levada Center. 47% of the respondents said they “definitely support” the war, and were revealed to make false justifications from blind veneration for Putin. 28% of the respondents said they “mostly support” the war, due to fear of adverse consequences for themselves. Furthermore, it is revealed that the Russians, who don’t know the plight thoroughly, merely join the mainstream perspective based on the belief that the government knows best.