2025 Baekdu Mountain Eruption: Signs, Consequences, and Coping Strategies

The tallest mountain on the Korean peninsula is about to erupt in two years, in 2025. The center of the incident is the 2,744m-tall Baekdu Mountain, located on the border between North Korea and China. Its majesty led ancient people to create mythological stories as to what Baekdu was for them. According to the Encyclopedia of Korean Culture, various types and tendencies of Baekdu myths indicate that people revered and worshiped the mountain as an origin of prosperity, the dwelling of the patron god, and the subject of authority judging good and evil. The Korean peninsula is geographically surrounded by major East-Asian countries like Russia, China, and Japan, therefore, the eruption of Mt. Baekdu is anticipated to bring a devastating impact on the East-Asian regions.

Mt. Baekdu had been recorded to erupt In 946 CE, which was a tremendous incident that brought a continent-level disaster to East Asia. According to the chief of the Citizens’ Institute of Environmental Studies, it is concluded that Mt. Baekdu’s eruption in 946 had the largest ever magnitude in history, analyzing the amount of sulfur in rocks near the crater, Cheonji. Furthermore, according to Yoon-soo Lee, a professor of POSTECH, over 4 times of energy that was released by the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami was released from Cheonji during the eruption in 946; according to Seonghyo Yoon, a professor of Busan University, volcanic ashes had spread so far at that time that they were even found in the glaciers of Greenland. These tell that the impact of mountain Baekdu in 946 was enormous, and warn that people today must be aware of the influences the eruption in 2025 would bring and be acquainted with appropriate coping strategies.

People base the possibility of the eruption on the 100-year cycle theory. Mt. Baekdu, since its eruption in 946, has erupted at least once every century for a millennium. The most recent eruption was in 1925, which makes the eruption in 2025 probable. On the other hand, various signs of the eruption have been discovered since the early 2000s. According to Hyuk Kim, the head of the earthquake department in North Korea, a total of 10 earthquakes had been recorded around Mt. Baekdu between 2016 and 2018, which increases the underground sensitivity. Suspicious circumstances around the mountain, such as 3,000 earthquakes at Mt. Baekdu between 2002 and 2005, the swelling of the Cheonji area by dozens of cm, and the release of volcanic gas that dried trees out around, also buttressed the idea. The rise of the mountain’s surface temperature by a few degrees since before October 2006, observed by a Russian satellite, and the rise of the temperature of the hot springs around Cheonji from 69°C in the 1990s to 83°C currently, suggest that there is magma present underneath the mountain. Furthermore, in 2016, North Korea, through an international journal paper, actually proved the presence of magma underground around Mt. Baekdu.

There are forecasted to be disastrous possible consequences after the eruption in 2025. Primarily, 2000t of water stored in the Mt. Baekdu caldera would flood out along with the liquefied carbon dioxide underneath, which could suffocate the lives around. The dispersal of volcanic ashes would also be a huge problem. According to the National Disaster Management Institute of Korea, after the eruption, following the northwest wind, volcanic ashes would pass through the Ulleungdo area after 9 hours and pass through the Japanese archipelago after 24 hours. Climate change, environmental pollution, power failure, suspension of transportation, industrial damage, and facility damage stem from volcanic ash, would be a consequence of the eruption. According to Arief R. Achmad from the Division of Science Education of Kangwon National University, if the eruption is large, as at Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 5 and 7, lahar would inundate residential areas like Hyesan in North Korea and Ji’an in China. Also, such a large volcanic eruption is anticipated to deform the topography by 100 m at maximum. In terms of social damages, the relationship between North and South Korea, and between North Korea and China could be impacted by the eruption. The possibility of refugee generation and economic recession due to industrial damages cannot be excluded.

However, appropriate coping strategies would minimize the damages attributable to the eruption of Mt. Baekdu. There is already a straightforward manual for protecting yourself during a volcanic eruption suggested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If the lava is coming toward you, leave the area immediately no matter what. If you are indoors, block external air inflow, and bring pets and livestock into closed shelters. If you are outdoors, seek shelter indoors, roll into a ball to protect your head during rockfall, beware of rising water and mudflows, and avoid contact with gasses and fumes. For protecting yourself from ashfall, stay inside, wear long-sleeved shirts and pants, wear goggles to protect your eyes and air purifying respirator to protect your lungs, and avoid driving. Away from general guidance for volcanic eruption, response tasks are suggested for different damage scenarios of Mt. Baekdu’s blast by Jae Eun Park and Hye Won Kim. People will also be notified with response guidelines through broadcasting, followed by activation of shelter and emergency transportation, operation of power supply facilities, and enforcement of disaster recovery support plans. In terms of multi-hazard around China and North Korea, suppression of radiation leakage, prevention of additional explosions, radiation victim treatment, emergency food supply plan, victim compensation, and temporary residence plan are essential. When it comes to the impacts on East Asia, observational monitoring of damage scale, the dispatch of disaster relief medical teams, international support from the UN, and the device of economic burden mitigation measures can be possible ideal responses. Lastly, in response to the global impact of the explosion, identification of ash-influenced areas, aircraft flying route changes, satellite-based ash monitoring, international aid request, economic measures, damage scale assessment, and aggravation prevention are mandatory not only to reduce the damage, but also to seek quick recovery in terms of politics, economy, and business.

It has been realized that the eruption of Mt. Baekdu is in the near future. Finding the precursor symptoms, the risks it could bring, and the appropriate countermeasures would prevent you from the maximum damage you can imagine. People must familiarize various related guidance, and protect themselves and the precious people around from the calamitous disaster.